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مقدمه
در زمان پیچیدگی اقتصادی و وابستگی متقابل جهانی، اظهارات اخیر جروم پاول، رئیس فدرال رزرو، توجه سرمایهگذاران و اقتصاددانان در سراسر جهان را به خود جلب کرده است. سخنرانی او در گردهمایی سالانه سیاست اقتصادی در جکسون هول، وایومینگ، رویکرد فدرال رزرو برای مدیریت اقتصاد ایالات متحده، به ویژه در مورد نرخ بهره و تورم را تشریح کرد.
چشمانداز پاول منعکسکننده یک راهبرد ظریف با هدف ایجاد تعادل بین حمایت از رشد اقتصادی، و مبارزه با تورم است. این مقاله به بررسی نکات کلیدی از سخنرانی وی میپردازد، پیامدهای سیاستهای مالی ایالات متحده را بررسی میکند و تاثیر جهانی تصمیمات فدرال رزرو را مورد بحث قرار میدهد.
علاوه بر این، اظهارات کریستین لاگارد، رئیس بانک مرکزی اروپا و ارتباط آنها را در زمینه ثبات اقتصادی جهانی بررسی خواهیم کرد.
موضع پولی فدرال رزرو
سخنرانی پاول نشاندهنده تعهد به حفظ نرخ بهره در سطوح بالا، و امکان افزایش بیشتر در صورت لزوم بود. علیرغم اذعان به پیشرفت در کاهش تورم، پاول تاکید کرد که وظیفه فدرال رزرو برای مبارزه با تورم هنوز کامل نشده است. وی به قصد فدرال رزرو برای حفظ احتیاط اشاره کرد و به همین دلیل فضا را برای ثابت ماندن نرخ بهره در نشست پولی بعدی مهیا کرد.
این سخنان، پس از افزایش نرخ بهره توسط فدرال رزرو در ماه ژوئیه صورت میگیرد که این نرخ را به بالاترین حد در 22 سال گذشته بین 5.25 تا 5.5 درصد رساند. پیام پاول بر تغییر به سمت مدیریت ریسکها در میان عدم اطمینان در مورد تأثیر افزایشهای قبلی نرخ بهره و چشمانداز اقتصادی فعلی تاکید میکند.
تا زمانی که تورم فروکش کند، سیاست پولی محدودکننده خواهد ماند!
یکی از مهمترین دستاوردهای سخنرانی پاول این بود که تا زمانی که تورم نشانههای قطعیتری از حرکت به سمت هدف ۲ درصدی فدرال رزرو را نشان دهد، موضع پولی محدودکننده ادامه خواهد داشت. علیرغم عملکرد قوی اقتصاد ایالات متحده، با رشد قوی و نرخ بیکاری پایین، فدرال رزرو قصد دارد موضع محتاطانه خود را حفظ کند.
ویلیام انگلیش، استاد دانشکده مدیریت ییل و مشاور سابق مقامات فدرال رزرو، پیشنهاد میکند که فدرال رزرو هنوز شاهد تعدیل اقتصاد و بازار کار به میزان دلخواه خود نیست. این نشان موضوع میدهد که سیاست پولی فعلی ممکن است برای چندین ماه ادامه یابد؛ حتی اگر افزایش دیگر نرخ بهره در ماه سپتامبر وجود نداشته باشد.
هدف فدرال رزرو روشن است. آنها قصد دارند از اعتبار بخشیدن به انتظارات بازار برای کاهش نرخ بهره در آینده جلوگیری کنند؛ زیرا این امر میتواند رشد را تحریک کند. در عوض، آنها میخواهند نرخ بهره را بالا نگه دارند تا از کاهش تورم اطمینان حاصل کنند.
نااطمینانیهای اقتصادی
پاول وظیفه چالشبرانگیز مدیریت سیاست پولی را در میان ابهامات اذعان کرد و از آن به عنوان “پیمایش توسط ستارهها در زیر آسمان ابری یاد کرد. چندین عدم قطعیت به این پیچیدگی کمک میکند:
- فدرال رزرو نمیتواند دقیقاً سطح دقیق نرخ بهره مورد نیاز برای دستیابی به کندی اقتصادی مطلوب را در زمان واقعی تعیین کند.
- تأثیر افزایشهای قبلی نرخ بهره بر فعالیتهای اقتصادی و بازارهای مالی، و همچنین میزان تأثیر آتی آنها نامشخص است.
- چالش ایجاد تعادل بین ریسک انقباض بیش از حد پولی، که منجر به افزایش نرخ بیکاری و رکود میشود، در برابر ریسک محتاط بودن بیش از حد، که به تورم اجازه میدهد تا ریشهدار شود، چالشی بزرگ برای فدرال رزرو است.
در چنین محیطی، مدیریت ریسک به یک ملاحظات حیاتی برای فدرال رزرو تبدیل میشود. مقامات باید به دقت ارزیابی کنند که آیا در انتظار دادههای اضافی اقتصادی هستند یا خیر.
تورم در کانون توجهات باقی میماند
در حالی که پاول از کاهش اخیر در افزایش قیمتها استقبال کرد، او تاکید کرد که تورم بسیار بالا باقی مانده است. هدف اصلی فدرال رزرو بازگرداندن تورم به هدف 2 درصدی به طور پایدار است. اگر اقتصاد به همان سرعتی که انتظار میرود، سرد نشود، میتواند ریسکی برای پیشرفت تورم ایجاد، و انقباض بیشتر پولی را ایجاب کند.
پاول اظهار داشت که ما آمادهایم در صورت لزوم نرخ بهره را بیشتر افزایش دهیم و تا زمانی که مطمئن شویم که تورم به طور پایدار به سمت هدف ما حرکت میکند، موضع پولی خود را در سطوح محدودکننده نگه میداریم. این امر بر تعهد تزلزلناپذیر فدرال رزرو برای دستیابی به ثبات قیمت تاکید میکند.
پیامدهای جهانی و دیدگاه لاگارد
تصمیمات و سیاست پولی فدرال رزرو پیامدهای جهانی گستردهای دارد. همانطور که دلار به دلیل نرخ بهره بالاتر تقویت میشود، بر بازارهای مالی جهانی و پویایی تجارت تأثیر میگذارد. افزایش شاخص دلار بلومبرگ که طولانیترین رشد در 15 ماه گذشته را نشان میدهد، نشاندهنده احساسات سرمایهگذاران تحت تأثیر موضع انقباضی پاول است.
![](https://investvip.ir/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/2-9.jpg-1024x576.webp)
نرخ بهره بالاتر فدرال رزرو میتواند منجر به خروج سرمایه از کشورهای دیگر شود و بر هزینههای استقراض و ارز آنها تأثیر بگذارد. بازارهای نوظهور، به ویژه در برابر چنین تغییراتی آسیبپذیر هستند.
کریستین لاگارد، رئیس بانک مرکزی اروپا، سخنان پاول را تکرار کرد و بر تعهد بانک مرکزی اروپا به تعیین هزینههای استقراض تا حد لازم برای مبارزه با تورم تاکید کرد. لاگارد بر اهمیت ارائه ثبات و مهار قیمت توسط بانکهای مرکزی در یک دوره اقتصادی نامشخص تاکید کرد.
![](https://investvip.ir/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/3-4.jpg-1024x548.webp)
اظهارات لاگارد در جکسون هول با بحث های جاری بانک مرکزی اروپا در مورد افزایش بیشتر نرخ بهره در ناحیه یورو همخوانی دارد. با تداوم نگرانیهای تورمی و چالشهای اقتصادی در این ناحیه، بانک مرکزی اروپا در تصمیمگیری سیاستهای پولی آینده خود با یک اقدام متعادلکننده ظریف مواجه است.
نتیجهگیری
سخنرانی اخیر جروم پاول در گردهمایی جکسون هول، بینشی از رویکرد فدرال رزرو برای مدیریت اقتصاد ایالات متحده ارائه میدهد. چشمانداز او شامل حفظ نرخ بهره در سطوح بالا برای مبارزه با تورم است؛ حتی در شرایطی که اقتصاد مقاومت نشان میدهد. فدرال رزرو مصمم به اجتناب تورم بالا است و این موضع، در دیدگاه لاگارد، رئیس بانک مرکزی اروپا نیز مشهود بود.
منبع اصلی: بلومبرگ
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Whereas many internet-based jobs provide flexible hours or a number of shifts, tutoring providers may require you to be online during a particular block of time or reward you for doing so.
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The zoo alone suffered about $1.5 million in damage.
In New York City, for instance, demand for house models in Manhattan nosedived at an annualized rate of 80 in Could.
Tasker, John Paul (18 September 2019).
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Because this number effectively corresponds to the time that the firm’s cash is tied up in operations and unavailable for other activities, management generally aims at a low net count.
In any case, physics, chemistry, and mathematics are the three primary science disciplines that you can’t escape.
Next day share worth closed up 15 at €0.Ninety four after hitting €1.14 intraday.
In August 2016, AQS was acquired by Equilend.
Google even laid down the Android Developer Challenge — a contest that had a collective prize pool of $10 million.
If there was a real estate market that got hit hard after the bust of 2007, it was Miami.
If you contact your bank personnel and credit card provider Company to get money transfer services, they do offer such services but with some stipulated governmental policies.
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In simple terms, you need to keep watching out for continuation in breaks in prices of any asset class as this would give you a better indication of the possibility of prices moving in that direction.
The parish priest, Fr.
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For example, the purchasing power of the US dollar relative to that of the euro is the dollar price of a euro (dollars per euro) times the euro price of one unit of the market basket (euros/goods unit) divided by the dollar price of the market basket (dollars per goods unit), and hence is dimensionless.
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Alternatively, your child might be a U.S.
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